Abdul El-Sayed will face White Lake Township's Mike Rogers for Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat after NBC News projected El-Sayed the winner Wednesday, Aug. 5, of Tuesday's Democratic primary over U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens.
With about 95 percent of ballots counted statewide, El-Sayed led 48.6 percent to Stevens' 47.3 percent, a margin of roughly 20,000 votes, according to the Detroit Free Press.
The result sets up a general election on Tuesday, Nov. 3 between two candidates with deep Oakland County ties, in a race the Cook Political Report rates a toss-up, according to Newsweek.
Stevens won Oakland County
Stevens, the four-term congresswoman from Birmingham whose district covers much of Oakland County, carried the county where Novi sits. Oakland County's unofficial results were 99 percent reported as of midnight, according to the Michigan Advance. El-Sayed won Kent, Washtenaw, Kalamazoo and Ingham counties. Stevens held a commanding lead in early Wayne County returns, which include Northville Township and the City of Northville.
Precinct-level results for Northville Township, the City of Northville and Novi were not yet available as of the morning of Aug. 5. Nearly 1 in 5 Oakland County voters had already cast ballots before polls opened on Tuesday, Aug. 4.
Stevens had not conceded as of the morning of Wednesday, Aug. 5. The Associated Press had not called the race, though NBC News projected El-Sayed the winner.
A $98 million primary
The Democratic contest was the third most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history, with $98.2 million in ad spending or reserved airtime through the end of July, according to Bridge Michigan. Outside groups accounted for 88 percent of all Democratic-side spending, with AIPAC's United Democracy Project alone spending $31.7 million backing Stevens.
"If you need a $60 million crutch, you probably can't be elected on your own terms," El-Sayed said at a July 27 debate in Detroit, referring to the outside money supporting Stevens, according to NBC News.
El-Sayed, 41, is a physician and former Detroit health director who ran for governor in 2018. He campaigned on Medicare for All, ending corporate money in politics and abolishing ICE. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Sen. Gary Peters and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer had all endorsed Stevens.
Rogers: a familiar name locally
Rogers, a former FBI special agent and former U.S. representative, ran unopposed in the Republican primary. He lost the 2024 Senate race to now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin by roughly 19,000 votes. He carries President Trump's endorsement into his second straight Senate bid.
The seat is open because Peters, D-Bloomfield Township, is retiring after two terms. Republicans have not won a Michigan Senate race since 1994.
What to watch
A late-July EPIC-MRA poll of 600 likely voters showed Rogers leading El-Sayed 46 percent to 43 percent in a hypothetical general-election matchup, according to the same Newsweek report cited above. The Republican Senate Leadership Fund super PAC has already booked $27.8 million in fall ad spending, while Democratic group WinSenate has booked $17.4 million, according to AdImpact.
Stevens' Senate run also leaves her 11th Congressional District seat, based almost entirely in Oakland County, on the Tuesday, Nov. 3 ballot.
